Rubicon Market Review — September 2025

Market developments, sector trends, and ECM activity in Europe

1. Overview of the markets

The 2025 financial year has so far shown a positive performance across European markets, albeit with notable geographical and sectoral dispersion. The STOXX 600 is up +8.4% YTD, driven by a strong start in January (+6.3%) and another rebound in May (+4.2%), offset by corrections in March and April.

At a geographical level, the IBEX-35 leads the gains (+29% YTD), followed by Italy’s FTSE MIB (+23%) and Germany’s DAX-30 (+20%). The NASDAQ-100 (+11%) and the S&P 500 (+10%) are broadly in line with the FTSE-100 (+12%), while France’s CAC-40 (+4%) is the only major European index significantly underperforming, trailing even the STOXX-600 (+8%), which aggregates the 600 largest European companies.

Looking ahead, the CAC-40 is expected to deliver relatively weaker returns in the coming months, weighed down by a combination of political instability and a severe fiscal and budgetary crisis. A key date will be 8 September, when Prime Minister François Bayrou is set to face —and is widely expected to lose—a motion of no confidence.

2. Sectorial winners and losers

The sector breakdown shows a clear rotation towards cyclical industries:

• Banks (SX7P): +40.2% YTD, benefiting from margin expansion.
• Insurance (SXIP): +19.1%, combining defensive stability with rising profitability.
• Industrials and Construction & Materials: +16.5% and +14.4%, supported by infrastructure investment and robust manufacturing activity.
• Oil & Gas, Utilities, and Telecoms: gains ranging between +12% and +14%.

In contrast, the weakest performers include Retail (-4.6%), Health Care (-3.9%), Automobiles & Parts (-3.6%), and Technology (-0.8%).

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3. Sectorial evolution in 2025

The divergence in sector performance is evident in their cumulative trends:

• Banks: sustained upward trajectory.
• Insurance: steady growth throughout the year.
• Health Care and Retail: flat to mildly negative bias.

4. Equity Capital Markets (ECM) Activity

The European primary market continues at a moderate pace, with an average deal size of $283 million and an average free float of 32%. As of 1 September 2025, the average post-IPO return stands at +42%, though performance has been highly dispersed: Pfisterer (+143%) and Entity Holding (+109%) rank among the top performers, while HBX Group (-6%) and Roko AB (-3%) have recorded declines since their debut.

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Rubicon Conclusion

2025 has been marked by a clear sector rotation, with investors favoring banking, insurance, and industrial sectors over weaker consumer-oriented segments. Geographic and sectoral dispersion highlights the need for a highly selective approach to capturing alpha.

In the ECM space, investment appetite remains intact but is concentrated on high-quality offerings in sectors with strong structural growth drivers. For mid-market companies considering capital raising, the current environment rewards compelling narratives, efficient structures, and flawless execution.